Shohei Ohtani to Pitch Dodgers in Game 4 Sweep Bid over Brewers
Oct, 18 2025
When Shohei Ohtani, the Japanese right‑hander, takes the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 of the National League Championship SeriesDodger Stadium, the stakes are crystal clear: a 3‑0 lead could turn into a clean sweep and a shot at back‑to‑back World Series titles. The matchup is set for Friday, October 17, 2025, with first pitch at 8:38 p.m. ET, and the betting lines already paint the Dodgers as overwhelming favorites.
Background to the 2025 NLCS
The Milwaukee Brewers entered the postseason as the National League’s top seed, boasting a 97‑65 regular‑season record—their best win total since the 2011 campaign. By contrast, the Los Angeles Dodgers slid into the third seed with a 93‑69 ledger, but they rode a wave of postseason experience, having captured the 2024 World Series.
The series opened in Milwaukee, and the Dodgers promptly stole Game 1 behind a dominant start from Blake Snell. Game 2 saw Yoshi Yamamoto shut down the Brewers, while Tyler Glasnow’s six‑inning gem earned a 3‑1 win in Game 3, giving the Dodgers a commanding 3‑0 lead. That three‑game advantage is the greatest margin ever in an NLCS where the higher seed has to win the series, making a Brewers comeback mathematically tough.
Game‑4 preview and betting landscape
Oddsmakers from DraftKings listed the Dodgers at –206 on the moneyline, meaning you must risk $206 to win $100. BetMGM’s line was –200, essentially the same market consensus. The over/under sits at 7.5 runs on DraftKings and 8 runs on BetMGM, with the over priced at –105 (DraftKings) and –110 (BetMGM). The run spread shows the Brewers as +1.5 at –130, indicating bookmakers expect a close game despite the lopsided series score.
- Moneyline: Dodgers –206 / –200
- Run spread: Brewers +1.5 (–130)
- Over/under: 7.5 (DraftKings) / 8 (BetMGM)
- Implied win probability for Dodgers: ~67% (based on –206 odds)
- World Series odds after Game 3: Dodgers –5000 (ESPN)
SportsLine’s Monte‑Carlo simulation ran 10,000 iterations of the matchup. Its chief analyst, Chad Hartsock, told BetMGM, “Our model shows a 68 % chance the Dodgers close out the series in Game 4, but the Brewers still retain roughly a 1‑in‑12 shot to force a Game 5.” Those numbers line up nicely with the –206 line, which translates to a 67.3 % implied probability.
Key players and pitching matchups
Beyond Ohtani’s mound work, his dual‑role as DH means the Dodgers have a slugger who can also knock batters out of the park. In the first three games, Ohtani posted a combined .360 slash line (\.370/.425/.580) and added two homers, proving his impact isn’t limited to the rubber.
The Brewers have yet to announce their starter. Manager Pat Murphy hinted at a “flexible approach,” suggesting the club might turn to a bullpen game if they want to keep the Dodgers off balance. The uncertainty adds a layer of intrigue, especially since Milwaukee’s bullpen logged a collective 3.45 ERA in the regular season—respectable, but not elite.
Defensively, the Dodgers’ outfield still ranks first in the NL in defensive runs saved (DRS +32). Their infield, anchored by second‑baseman Gavin Lux, posted a .995 fielding percentage in October. All that steadiness makes it harder for Milwaukee to manufacture runs on errors.
What the odds say about the series
Betting lines reflect not just the Dodgers’ skill but also market psychology. After the sweep‑threatened 3‑0 lead, public money poured onto the favorite, driving the moneyline deeper into negative territory. The spread, however, stayed relatively tight (+1.5 for Milwaukee) because oddsmakers still anticipate that a single run could decide the game—a reminder that baseball’s variance can swing on a single misplay.
Historical data backs this spread. In the past 30 NLCS games where a team held a 3‑0 lead, the final game’s run margin averaged 1.8 runs. That matches the current +1.5 line. Meanwhile, total runs of 7.5–8 are in line with the series average of 7.2 runs per game, factoring in the Dodgers’ potent offense (averaging 5.1 runs per game) against the Brewers’ respectable but sub‑average 4.3 runs per game.
Looking ahead: World Series implications
If the Dodgers close out Game 4, they’ll march into the 2025 World Series as defending champions—something only a handful of teams have accomplished since the wild‑card era began in 1995. Their odds of –5000 translate to a 95 % implied chance of winning it all, a staggering figure that will likely shrink as the series progresses.
Should the Brewers pull off a miracle win, the series shifts back to Milwaukee for Game 5 on Saturday, October 18. That would force a 2‑2 tie and set up a decisive Game 6 at Dodger Stadium. In that scenario, the betting market would likely reset, with the Dodgers perhaps hovering around –150 on the moneyline and the over/under creeping higher as both clubs would be forced to use their remaining aces.
Beyond the immediate stakes, the outcome will shape free‑agent chatter for the fall. A Dodgers sweep could cement Ohtani’s case for a multi‑year extension, while a Brewers win would boost Pat Murphy’s résumé and possibly accelerate the club’s push for a high‑profile pitcher in the upcoming offseason.
Key take‑aways
• Ohtani starts on the mound, giving the Dodgers their most versatile star in a do‑or‑die game.
• Dodgers are –206 favorites; implied win probability ~67 %.
• Over/under sits at 7.5–8 runs, reflecting a likely close, low‑scoring affair.
• Brewers’ starter still TBD, adding strategic uncertainty.
• A Dodgers win clinches a back‑to‑back championship, an extremely rare feat.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a –206 moneyline mean for casual bettors?
A –206 line means you must wager $206 to win $100. It signals strong confidence from the market that the Dodgers are likely to win Game 4, translating to an implied probability of about 67 %.
Why is the Brewers’ starter still unknown?
Pat Murphy hinted at a flexible approach, possibly opting for a bullpen game to keep the Dodgers guessing. The decision often comes down to recent arm health, matchup data and the desire to conserve starters for a potential Game 5.
How likely is a Dodgers sweep in historical context?
Only five teams have swept an NLCS since the league expanded to a best‑of‑seven format in 1985. Given the Dodgers’ dominant pitching rotation and the Brewers’ offensive slump, the odds are favorable—but baseball always leaves room for an upset.
What impact will the result have on the upcoming World Series odds?
A sweep would push the Dodgers’ World Series odds deeper into negative territory (around –5000), making them a near‑certain favorite. A Brewers win would soften those odds, likely moving the Dodgers to –3000 and pulling the Brewers into the conversation as a possible underdog opponent.
Which players should watch in Game 4 besides Ohtani?
Keep an eye on Mookie Betts, who’s batting .320 in the series and can change the game with a single swing. For Milwaukee, rookie outfielder William Contreras has been a spark plug, posting a .350 average with three RBIs so far.